Bitcoin above ___ on July 1, 12AM ET?
Core Summary
According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Bitcoin above ___ on July 1, 12AM ET?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.
Currently, 57,000 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 6,000% chance of winning. 57,200 follows in second place at 6,000%, while 57,400 sits in third with 6,000%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached —, reflecting intense industry interest.
Breakdown of Competitive Tiers
To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:
🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader
- 57,000 (6,000%): Currently commanding the highest probability, 57,000 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 6,000¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.
🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers
- 57,200 (6,000%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, 57,200 maintains a 6,000% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 6,000¢.
- 57,400 (6,000%): Sitting in third place with a 6,000% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward 57,400, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.
🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)
Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:
- Alternative Options: This includes 57,600 (6,000%), 57,800 (6,000%), and 58,000 (6,000%).
- Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like 58,200 are still attracting notable interest.
Comprehensive Order Book & Pricing Dashboard
The table below outlines the full breakdown of contract prices, probabilities, and market depth for all listed outcomes in this prediction pool:
| Rank | Predicted Outcome | Win Probability | Trading Volume | Buy Yes (Cost) | Buy No (Cost) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 57,000 | 6000.0% | — | 6000¢ | -5900¢ |
| 2 | 57,200 | 6000.0% | — | 6000¢ | -5900¢ |
| 3 | 57,400 | 6000.0% | — | 6000¢ | -5900¢ |
| 4 | 57,600 | 6000.0% | — | 6000¢ | -5900¢ |
| 5 | 57,800 | 6000.0% | — | 6000¢ | -5900¢ |
| 6 | 58,000 | 6000.0% | — | 6000¢ | -5900¢ |
| 7 | 58,200 | 6000.0% | — | 6000¢ | -5900¢ |
| 8 | 58,400 | 5950.0% | — | 5950¢ | -5850¢ |
| 9 | 58,600 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 10 | 58,800 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 11 | 59,400 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 12 | 59,200 | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 13 | 59,600 | 4100.0% | — | 4100¢ | -4000¢ |
| 14 | 59,800 | 4050.0% | — | 4050¢ | -3950¢ |
| 15 | 60,000 | 4000.0% | — | 4000¢ | -3900¢ |
| 16 | 60,200 | 4000.0% | — | 4000¢ | -3900¢ |
| 17 | 60,400 | 4000.0% | — | 4000¢ | -3900¢ |
| 18 | 60,600 | 4000.0% | — | 4000¢ | -3900¢ |
| 19 | 60,800 | 4000.0% | — | 4000¢ | -3900¢ |
| 20 | 61,000 | 4000.0% | — | 4000¢ | -3900¢ |
Result Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Close" price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that ends on the time and date specified in the title is higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1h" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current market consensus on "Bitcoin above ___ on July 1, 12AM ET?"?
As of the latest update, 57,000 leads the field as the frontrunner with a 6,000% win probability, followed by 57,200 at 6,000% and 57,400 at 6,000%. Total trading volume for this pool has reached —, indicating deep liquidity and high trader engagement.