Assimi Goïta out as President of Mali by...?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Assimi Goïta out as President of Mali by...?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, December 31 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 4,950% chance of winning. June 30 follows in second place at 4,950%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $48, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• December 31 (4,950%): Currently commanding the highest probability, December 31 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 4,950¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $48 in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• June 30 (4,950%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, June 30 maintains a 4,950% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 4,950¢.

This market resolves to “Yes” if Assimi Goïta’s departure as President of Mali is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The departure will be considered to be announced when Assimi Goïta, the Government of Mali, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Goïta has ceased or will cease to hold the position of President of Mali. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person’s resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify.

Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither “I will leave office in 2 years,” nor “I will not be in office forever,” would qualify).

Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.

The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives.

If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify.

If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to “Yes” if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Assimi Goïta, and the Government of Mali; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.