Arizona passes ballot measure restricting transgender school and athletic access?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Arizona passes ballot measure restricting transgender school and athletic access?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Yes is dominating the market with an overwhelming 5,000% chance of winning. No follows in second place at 5,000%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached —, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• Yes (5,000%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Yes is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 5,000¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• No (5,000%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, No maintains a 5,000% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 5,000¢.

Arizona HCR 2003 is a legislatively referred measure that is scheduled to appear as a ballot measure in Arizona in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would restrict certain sports leagues, locker rooms, restrooms, and other spaces based on the sex recorded on an individual's original birth certificate.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Arizona statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.

Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Arizona, including the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/).