Oil Market Regime Analysis

Use This Skill When

• The user wants a top-level oil regime call.
• The task is to combine physical, geopolitical, and macro signals into one framework.
• The analysis needs to explain whether oil is in a shortage, balance, or weakening phase.

Required Inputs

• benchmark: WTI, Brent, or another oil reference
• time horizon: tactical, 3 to 6 months, or 12 months
• supply inputs: OPEC policy, US shale, outages, sanctions, exports
• demand inputs: transport, industrial activity, China demand, seasonal trends
• market inputs: inventories, curves, spreads, positioning, macro pressure
• If some inputs are missing, classify the regime with lower confidence and say what evidence is absent.

Workflow

1. Define the oil regime question and horizon.
2. Assess supply discipline and disruption risk.
3. Assess demand momentum and macro sensitivity.
4. Review inventories, term structure, and crack or product confirmation.
5. Separate physical tightness from recession or dollar-driven pressure.
6. Classify the regime and identify likely transition triggers.

Output Requirements

• Present a regime view, not a long oil history.
• Distinguish physical market strength from macro liquidation pressure.
• State the current regime and the likely next regime if key variables change.
• Keep the horizon explicit.

Output Template

Quality Checks

• Confirm physical and macro drivers are separated.
• Check that inventories and curve structure are included.
• Verify the regime call is time-bound.
• Make sure transition triggers are concrete.

Guardrails

• Do not use price alone to define regime.
• Do not ignore policy and geopolitical supply risk.
• Do not overstate certainty when data conflicts.
• Do not fabricate balances or positioning data.

Example Prompts

• Classify the current Brent regime and explain the top drivers.
• Give me a 3-month oil market regime analysis with transition triggers.
• Separate physical tightness from macro pressure in the current oil market.